Israel-Hamas War At 8 Months: Disastrous

On May 7, 2024 the war between Israel and Hamas begins its eighth month. Some 1,200 Israelis were murdered by 1,000 Hamas operatives on October 7, 2023. In the seven months since then, more than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza. Among them, according to the Israeli Defense Force, were 11,000 Hamas soldiers, along …

Pay Less Attention to Polls. Instead, Follow Political Scientist Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House

American University History Professor Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984 with a 13-factor formula that has nothing to do with public opinion polls or his personal preferences about who would make the best president. He calls it the “Keys to the White House,” a historically based prediction system with true-false questions after reviewing …

Is GOP Sabotaging Itself By Rejecting Bipartisan Immigration Reform? Election Will Decide

Republican Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma calls overhauling U.S. immigration -- which hasn't been done since the 1980s -- a "Rubik's cube." He was the principal author of a bill to, in the words of the Wall Street Journal's conservative editorial board, "tighten the legal standard for migrants claiming asylum in the U.S., while allowing an emergency …

How Many ‘Illegals’ Has Biden Let Into US? Does US President Have the Authority to Close the Border?

Donald Trump and his supporters assert, falsely, that President Biden has let in between 10 million and 13 million illegal aliens into the country. They also assert falsely that the President has the authority to close the border, and Biden has chosen not to do so. Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post's fact-checker clarified that …

Despite Biden’s Optimism About the 2024 Election, One Factoid Reveals Bad Odds

A Democrat has to win the US popular vote by at least three percent to ensure an electoral college victory. A Republican can lose the popular vote by nearly 6 million and still win in the electoral college.  Joe Biden won 80 million votes compared to Donald Trump's 74 million but he won the electoral …

Not A Single Vote Will Change Over Ages of Biden Or Trump

Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1940 and 1944 set the standard. In my e-newsletter, I observe Joe Biden's comeback, with a strong State of the Union address, clearance of criminal behavior for withholding classified documents, and revelations that his faulty memory was greatly exaggerated by the media and manufactured a political crisis. Polls show Biden and …

Immigration and Border Controversies: Democrats Hope Public Opinion Is Shifting

In public opinion polling, Donald Trump engendered higher confidence on immigration and border issues in late 2023 and early 2024. But Democrats hope that with congressional Republicans' rejection of a tough immigration bill, the special election victory of their candidate for Congress to fill the seat of the ousted George Santos on Long Island, and …

Biden Kicks Off Election Comeback With Strong State of the Union Address

For much of 2023 and 2024, President Biden has polled behind Donald Trump in key-state opinion polls. His supporters hope that his 2024 State of the Union message on March 7 kicked off a comeback. He attracted a large audience watching it live, 34 million Americans. He is unlikely to get a larger audience until …

Close the Border? Reasons Why the Migration Crisis is Long-Term

Elaine Karmarck, Brookings Institution think tank: Four reasons the immigration crisis isn't going away. " First, the numbers of people trying to come to the United States have skyrocketed as migrants from all over the world, not just Mexico, try to come here. Second, it is more difficult to hire border patrol agents than perhaps …

FDR’s Illness in Last Years of His Presidency Pose Lessons for Biden and Trump Campaigns

Franklin Roosevelt's declining health in 1943-45, as reported by the National Park Service, included poor memory and sometimes, disorientation. Yet few would argue in retrospect that the U.S. would have been better off with another president at the helm, and certainly not Thomas Dewey, the stiff and remote Republican governor of NY. The GOP at …