Predicting the Future. It Doesn’t Look Great

What do we know about the future? What can we sensibly predict about it?

Golden Age of Dystopian Literature.

Political change: the continued decline of democracies and the rise of authoritarianism? Increasingly unrepresentative government? Currently the 50 Democratic U.S. Senators represent 40 million more people than the 50 Republican U.S. senators. In two out of five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, the winner of the popular vote was not the winner of the electoral college vote. If this pattern continues, between 2024 and 2036, the winner of the electoral college vote will not be the winner of the popular vote TWICE. If this is not changed, citizens will lose confidence in their elections.

When will the US Civil Rights Movement Achieve Its Goals?

Pandemics and Climate Change. Living in an Orwellian Nightmare Offers Grim Vision of the Future. Collectively sacrificing to save lives is better than self-centered radical individualism.

This Is the Way the World Ends: How Droughts and Die-offs, Heat Waves and Hurricanes Are Converging on America” by Jeff Nesbit.

Future demographic changes.

Future migration patterns.

Geopolitical shifts. To China. To Asia.

Technological Change.

  1. Future of automation.
  2. Humans and robots merge? Hal to Watson.
  3. Driverless cars?
  4. Cashless societyHow Blockchain will disrupt Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple.
  5. Economic instability due to a) stark inequality; b) new electronic currency; c) huge government deficits and massive public and personal debt.
  6. The danger of smartphones — they make kids dumber. A dark consensus about screens and kids emerges in Silicon Valley: “The devil lies in our phones.”


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